• Oregon track and field: Matthew Centrowitz is ready for the Oregon Preview; Ducks assistant Robert Johnson gets a national honor. Mar 19th, 2010, 23:35 - KRT (Length: 4082)
• Under Armour CEO Plank earned $748K after company beats targets Mar 19th, 2010, 22:37 - KRT (Length: 1951)
• Sheriff warns Pettis County residents of phone scam Mar 19th, 2010, 21:17 - KRT (Length: 3253)
• BRIEF: Organization seeks to improve employment prospects of Saudis Mar 19th, 2010, 21:08 - KRT (Length: 1658)
• BRIEF: Willard man jailed: Out on $50,000 cash bond - then arrested on another warrant Mar 19th, 2010, 20:20 - KRT (Length: 1671)
• Standard Life: Gen X Self Employed At Financial Risk By Putting Business Before Their Personal Finances Mar 19th, 2010, 20:11 - MTO (Length: 4657)
• DJ ICE: 92 Mar Coffee Notices Posted, Total 2127 - Mar 19 Mar 19th, 2010, 20:10 - FWN (Length: 1748)
• EDITORIAL: Opportunity comes with delay in Tower Building demo Mar 19th, 2010, 19:51 - KRT (Length: 3765)
• Ohio says jobless rate hits 10.9% Mar 19th, 2010, 19:36 - KRT (Length: 2827)
• 2 teens arraigned on felonies for throwing eggs at moving vehicles Mar 19th, 2010, 19:00 - KRT (Length: 2285)

[ More SP500 Index News ]

Analysis

Fri 3/19/10

Bollinger Bands Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The Bollinger Bands are indicating an overbought market. An overbought reading occurs when the close is nearer to the top band than the bottom band.

Additional Analysis: Volatility appears to be picking up a bit, as evidenced by an increasing distance between the upper and lower bands over the last few bars. The market appears overbought, but may continue to become more overbought before reversing. Given that we closed at a 45 bar new high, the chance for further bullish momentum is greatly increased. Look for some price weakness before taking any bearish positions based on this indicator.

Mov Avg 3 lines Indicator:

Note: In evaluating the short term, plot1 represents the fast moving average, and plot2 is the slow moving average. For the longer term analysis, plot2 is the fast moving average and plot3 is the slow moving average

Conventional Interpretation - Short Term: The market is bullish because the fast moving average is above the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Short Term: The market is EXTREMELY BULLISH. Everything in this indicator is pointing to higher prices: the fast average is above the slow average; the fast average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; the slow average is on an upward slope from the previous bar; and price is above the fast average and the slow average.

Conventional Interpretation - Long Term: The market is bearish because the fast moving average is below the slow moving average.

Additional Analysis - Long Term: Even though based on conventional interpretation the market is technically bearish, we will not classify it as extremely bearish until the following occurs: the fast moving average slope is down from previous bar, the slow moving average slope is down from previous bar, price goes below the fast moving average, price goes below the slow moving average.

Mov Avg-Exponential Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Price is above the moving average so the trend is up.

Additional Analysis: Market trend is UP.

Stochastic - Slow Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 92.31); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Swing Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The swing index is most often used to identify bars where the market is likely to change direction. A signal is generated when the swing index crosses zero. No signal has been generated here.

Additional Analysis: No additional interpretation.

Volatility Indicator: Volatility is in a downtrend based on a 9 bar moving average.

Volume Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs.

Additional Analysis: The long term market trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term market trend, based on a 5 bar moving average, is UP.The current new high is accompanied by increasing volume, suggesting a continuation to further new highs. However, be careful to avoid buying in an overbought market. RSI or MACD may be helpful here.

Comm Channel Index Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: CCI (194.64) recently crossed above the buy line into bullish territory, and is currently long. This long position should be liquidated when the CCI crosses back into the neutral center region.

Additional Analysis: CCI often misses the early part of a new move because of the large amount of time spent out of the market in the neutral region. Initiating signals when CCI crosses zero, rather than waiting for CCI to cross out of the neutral region can often help overcome this. Given this interpretation, CCI (194.64) is currently long. The current long position position will be reversed when the CCI crosses below zero. Adding bullish pressure the market just reached a 45 bar new high.

MACD Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: MACD has issued a bullish signal. A bullish signal is generated when the FastMA crosses above the SlowMA, as it has here.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. MACD has issued a bullish signal, since the FastMA has just crossed above the SlowMA. With the current trend to the upside, this suggests prices will continue to rise for a time. Further, the market just put in a 45 bar new high. Look for more new highs.

Momentum Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Momentum (31.35) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Momentum is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. A modest downturn is possible here.

Open Interest Indicator: Open Interest is trending up based on a 9 bar moving average. This is normal as delivery approaches and indicates increased liquidity.

Rate of change Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: Rate of Change (2.75) is above zero, indicating an overbought market.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend, based on a 45 bar moving average, is UP. The short term trend, based on a 9 bar moving average, is UP. Rate of Change is indicating an overbought market, and appears to be slowing. A modest downturn is possible here.

RSI Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: RSI is in neutral territory. (RSI is at 67.01). This indicator issues buy signals when the RSI line dips below the bottom line into the oversold zone; a sell signal is generated when the RSI rises above the top line into the overbought zone.

Additional Analysis: RSI is somewhat overbought (RSI is at 67.01), but given the 45 bar new high here, greater overbought levels are likely.

Stochastic - Fast Indicator:

Conventional Interpretation: The stochastic is in overbought territory (SlowK is at 100.00); this indicates a possible market drop is coming.

Additional Analysis: The long term trend is UP. The short term trend is UP. Even though the stochastic is signaling that the market is overbought, don't be fooled looking for a top here because of this indicator. The stochastic indicator is only good at picking tops in a Bear Market (in which we are not). Exit long position only if some other indicator tells you to.

Important: This commentary is designed solely as a training tool for the understanding of technical analysis of the financial markets. It is not designed to provide any investment or other professional advice.